Numerous studies have evaluated the natural history of aneurysmal subarachnoid hemorrhage. It is apparent that patients may die a sudden death and never reach medical care. However, among patients that do reach medical care (12,13) it appears that the rebleeding risk is highest in the first day following subarachnoid hemorrhage (4%) and then is about 1-2% per day during the next month (13). The mortality risk for recurrent hemorrhage is about 42% (14), and a ruptured aneurysm that remains untreated and does not hemorrhage within the first six months following initial hemorrhage has a long-term hemorrhage risk of about 3%. Long-term risk of rebleeding after the first month is likely related to aneurysm size and location.
In one population based study, the probability of rebleeding among patients with Hunt and Hess grades I, II and III who survived the initial SAH to obtain medical attention, seen between 1945-1974 was 2% per day over the first 10 days and at 30 days, the total rebleed rate was slightly less than 30% (14). In the Cooperative Study, the rebleeding rate was 23% over 2 weeks, and 35% over the first month, including definite and probable rebleeds. For definite rebleeds, the rate was 15% over the first 2 weeks and 20% over the first month.
The long term risk of rebleeding has also been evaluated both in community-based studies and by the Cooperative Aneurysm Study Group. In Rochester, Minnesota, most recurrent hemorrhages occurred within 30 days, while the rebleed rate was 1.5% per year after 30 days (2,14). In the Cooperative Study, the rate was 2.2% per year between 6 months and 10 years following SAH, and 0.86% per year for the second decade. In another evaluation of 387 patients treated for aneurysmal subarachnoid hemorrhage, 44 in-hospital rebleeds occurred, including 2% on the day after admission to the hospital, 0.6% on day 2, and 0.8% on day 3. Rerupture rate then increased somewhat during the next 10 days, and another peak was noted at 4 weeks. The actuarial risk of rebleed was 23% at 2 weeks and 42% at four weeks (15).
Survival free of focal neurological deficit in patients with grade I, II, or III SAH surviving to reach medical attention, excluding isolated cranial neuropathy or altered level of consciousness alone in the first 30 days was 50%. In 21%, patients had focal deficit occurring simultaneously with SAH onset (2). Utilizing a linear discriminate analysis of SAH prognosis, three variables were found to be useful, including prior hypertension, clinical grade at first medical attention, and presence of intracerebral hematoma. Difference in prognosis based upon whether hematoma was present or absent occurred independent of history of hypertension, and hypertension predicted a higher probability of death regardless of presence of hematoma. Hunt and Hess grade at time of first medical attention also made a major impact at survival to 30 days. Clinical grade was less important among patients with hematoma because prognosis was poor compared to those without hematoma (2).
Cognition may also be affected long-term following subarachnoid hemorrhage. The occurrence of abnormalities on neuropsychological studies is dependent on the type of studies performed. Normal tests of memory and cognition have been noted, although visuospatial construction and memory, mental flexibility and psychomotor speed were decreased one year following SAH (16).